Countdown to US Elections — How Global Crypto Markets Will React | Webcast

On November 5, 2024, history was made as Donald Trump was re-elected as U.S. President, marking his return to the White House after losing his re-election bid in 2020.

Trump, who has consistently described himself as “pro-crypto,” garnered significant support from the broader cryptocurrency community. Many speculated that his presidency could drive crypto adoption and foster improved regulatory frameworks for the industry.

To analyze the implications of Donald Trump’s re-election on the cryptocurrency industry, regulatory landscape, and market performance both globally and in the Philippines, the BitPinas Webcast assembled seven esteemed figures from the local crypto community:

1. Aldrin Rabino (Crypto4chun) – Long time content creator who specialized in crypto education and market insights.
2. Gilbert Lazaro (TitoVlogs) – Popular content creator known for engaging crypto-related discussions and tutorials.
3. Harry Santos – Senior Manager for Brand and Partnerships at PDAX, locally-licensed crypto exchange
4. James Pebenito – Representative of Celo Philippines, focused on blockchain-based financial solutions.
5. John James Genove (The Resistance Trader) – Influential content creator with expertise in trading strategies and market trends.
6. Joseph Lejarde (The WhizKid Trader) – Acclaimed trader and analyst who provided market analysis and investment guidance.
7. Luis Buenaventura – GCash’s Head for Crypto, arguably the foremost crypto thought leader in the Philippines.

The expert panel discussed the potential effects of Trump’s presidency on crypto adoption, regulations, and market dynamics, offering insights tailored to the Philippine crypto community.

Register on Facebook or bookmark this page to watch the webcast below:

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Is Trump’s Victory Predicted or A Surprise? (7:45 Mark)

• Rabino: For him, whoever the president is, the cryptocurrency space will continue. 
• Lazaro: He stressed that Trump’s victory is not predicted because pre-election surveys, except on Polymarket, dictate that the result might be too close.
  • Lazaro also shared that he was surprised that Trump claimed ‌victory too early because normally, tight elections take 24 to 48 hours before a winner has been declared. 
• Santos: The PDAX executive highlighted that Bitcoin, during the elections and Trump was leading, reached its all-time high because Trump has many promises to the crypto industry, including cutting the sentence of online illegal marketplace Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht and replacing U.S. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler. 
• Pebenito: He explained that Trump’s victory is beneficial to the crypto industry, but Trump has policies that do not align with his personal ideologies. 
• Genove: The Resistance Trader believes that the crypto community all around the world helped Trump’s campaign to go back to the White House. 
• Lejarde: He said that on the macro-economics side, crypto transactions are expected to be easier under Trump’s administration.
  • Lejarde also shared his optimism on Trump’s tax cut as part of his fiscal policy, which could be beneficial to the crypto market. 
• Buenaventura: The #CryptoPH champion emphasized that he was expecting Trump to win and that he even bet on Trump on Polymarket. 

How Will the Crypto Market Perform Under Trump? (24:50 Mark)

• Lazaro: Tito Vlogs assured that there are many exciting and controversial things to expect under Trump’s administration because the U.S. president can move the crypto market through his words.
  • However, he reminded ‌traders that they should expect that Trump and Elon Musk’s combination could cause volatility. Musk is among the biggest fish to support Trump. 
• Santos: Trump being crypto-friendly will make builders not afraid to build and investors not afraid to invest in crypto projects, he said.
• Pebenito: According to the Celo PH community representative, the crypto industry would gain popularity under Trump’s administration; thus, education campaigns to protect newbies from fraud are needed. 
• Buenaventura: Answering a question on what would happen if Trump was not pro-crypto, Buenaventura stressed that the market’s movement will not change what is happening today.
  • It is because the market is not into who the president is, but what party has won, he explained. A republican government is more business-oriented; hence, an increase in market performance. 
• Lejarde: Lejarde seconded Lazaro’s answers, saying that Trump’s victory could have a bullish effect on the crypto market. He also added to Buenaventura’s answer that Republicans historically are better during the recovering phase of the the financial market, which we are currently experiencing. 
• Rabino: On the other hand, Crypto4chun highlighted that Trump’s victory is just a small part of the crypto market’s cycle.
  • The good performance of the market today is also a continuation of the Bitcoing Halving that happened on April 21, 2024, he expanded. 
• Genove: The content creator believes that if Trump does his promises to the crypto industry, then mass adoption might happen, especially since the Philippines is following what the U.S. is doing. This is the only scenario in which the market can feel Trump’s significance to the industry. 

Will There Be Clearer Regulation on Crypto? (55:23 Mark)

• Lejarde: The Whizkid Trader clarified that no one knows what Trump’s policy on crypto is, as it will depend on who will be the new SEC Chairman. 
• Rabino: He insisted that while Trump is dominant in making his plans into law, he hopes that Trump should not tax crypto profits. 
• Buenaventura: Trump understands how taxes can be used as both an incentive and as a penalty, he emphasized. So there is a 69% chance that Trump will do what he promised. 
• Lazaro: Meanwhile, Tito Vlogs stressed that for the U.S.A. to be crypto-friendly, a law must be established first.
  • However, he also shared that Trump’s four-year term might not be enough to establish a crypto-friendly law. 
  • Lazaro then wished that if a law cannot be established, at least the industry can breathe well, unlike in ‌Biden’s administration, where Gensler is suing crypto projects. 

So Will There Be an Effect on Crypto Regulations in PH? (1:12:12)

• Lazaro: If establishing a crypto-friendly law in the U.S. is hard and the four-year term of Trump is not enough, how much more in the Philippines? asked Tito Vlogs.
  • That though the majority of regulations in the Philippines are copied from the U.S., our country is still slow in adopting them. This is where he stated that he is not expecting an effect so far. 
• Buenaventura: The GCrypto chief stressed that he does not think there will be a big impact on the PH government because our country has “lag time” in adopting regulations from the U.S.
  • But he also sees that the PH SEC banning unlicensed crypto platforms will continue. 
• Genove: He jokingly said that Buenaventura and Lazaro’s “medyo mabagal mag-adopt” remarks are modest, adding that “mabait pa sila in saying that the policy adoption here is medyo mabagal.”
  • Meanwhile, talking about Trump’s geopolitical plans, Genove highlighted that the community can still overpower bad regulation, especially the decentralized nature of the blockchain.
• Santos: The PDAX executive says that because the internet cannot have tariffs, then Trump’s geopolitics stance might not have a negative impact on web3 projects.
  • He also brought up Trump’s promise to have a Bitcoin Reserve for the U.S., attracting deeper interests. 
• Lejarde: Lejarde admitted that Trump has an unpredictable foreign policy but in the past Trump presidency, there were fewer wars and other geopolitical tensions. 

What Will Be the Guest’s Trading Style for the Next Four Years? (1:31:02 Mark)

• Rabino: He said that he will always be a contrarian trader, where he is more active during bear markets. 
• Santos: Santos advised ‌traders to practice the cost-averaging method to proceed with the Trump administration. 
• Pebenito: The Celo PH Community representative said that for those who are not well-versed traders like him, always play safe and conduct research. 
• Genove: The Resistance Trader reminded traders not to buy crypto at this moment. 
• Buenaventura: He shared that his plans are just to sell assets. 
• Lejarde: For short-term plans, Lejarde is planning to do swing trades on Bitcoin. 
• Lazaro: Mealwhile, Tito Vlogs shared that whoever is the president, his plans will always be “accumulate during the bear market and start distributing in the bull market.” 

This webcast is published on BitPinas: Countdown to US Elections — How Global Crypto Markets Will React | Webcast

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